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Jan Zilinsky
Jan Zilinsky

555 Followers

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Sep 25, 2020

A model of vote intent in 2020 — half of women voters will not vote for Trump

After estimating model of vote intent in 2020 — based on responses from over 230,000 registered U.S. voters — I noticed that its confidence hinges on respondents’ gender. Among the group of female respondents who are estimated to be the least likely to support Trump (the bottom quartile), the probability…

Politics

2 min read

A model of vote intent in 2020 — half of women voters will not vote for Trump
A model of vote intent in 2020 — half of women voters will not vote for Trump
Politics

2 min read


Sep 23, 2020

Voters Believed Us and Expected a Clinton Victory: Can We Manage Expectations This Time?

Four years ago, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson recieved 146,715 votes in Pennsylvania. Clinton lost the state to Trump by about 44,292 votes. Some of the 49,941 votes for Jill Stein would have helped Clinton as well but one reason they eluded the Democratic nominee was that Clinton looked like a…

US Politics

3 min read

Ready for Reshuffle: How many people who dislike both major parties are leaning towards Biden?
Ready for Reshuffle: How many people who dislike both major parties are leaning towards Biden?
US Politics

3 min read


Dec 24, 2018

Just Checking In: Phone Calls to Avert (Expedite?) Alarm

Treasury secretary made phone calls to bank CEOs, and these chats are proving difficult to frame as a confirmation that markets couldn’t be any healthier. “Even after recent market losses, a liquidity squeeze or fresh financial crisis hadn’t been on the market’s mind. …

Finance

3 min read

Just Checking In: Phone Calls to Avert (Expedite?) Alarm
Just Checking In: Phone Calls to Avert (Expedite?) Alarm
Finance

3 min read


Feb 1, 2016

How China caught up

In early 1980s, the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa produced more goods and services than China. By 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 3.1 percent of global GDP. China accounted for 17.2 percent. …

China

2 min read

How China caught up
How China caught up
China

2 min read


Sep 17, 2014

Will David Cameron’s Wikipedia entry be miserable in 2100?

Simon Wres-Lewis wrote a hypothetical Wikepedia entry for David Cameron. The entry is far from charitable: his government is not even able to keep the UK in the European Union, with opponents campaigning under the slogan: ‘If Scotland can do it, so can we.’ This post summarizes how some of…

7 min read

Will David Cameron’s Wikipedia entry be miserable in 2100?
Will David Cameron’s Wikipedia entry be miserable in 2100?

7 min read


Sep 15, 2014

Velvet divorce and the Scottish referendum: a fair comparison?

I wasn’t eligible to vote when my home country, Czechoslovakia, split into two separate republics in 1993. But my age was irrelevant: the elected leaders of a young democracy promised — but never gave us — a referendum. The messy process and contradictory promises of 1992 could perhaps be partially…

5 min read

Velvet divorce and the Scottish referendum: a fair comparison?
Velvet divorce and the Scottish referendum: a fair comparison?

5 min read


Sep 8, 2014

“Piketty should have said that”

Political institutions and civic participation shape how incomes are divided — so why did Piketty pay no attention to them? Good question. We can find the answer right inside Piketty’s book. In the last couple of weeks, a few articles came out claiming that Piketty’s book, Capital in the 21st…

8 min read

“Piketty should have said that”
“Piketty should have said that”

8 min read


Aug 22, 2014

Repugnant markets and prohibited transactions

In his lecture on unpopular, repugnant, and often illegal transactions, Al Roth raised provocative questions about markets and transactions that make us feel uncomfortable. When economists see long lines, they view them as a symptom of demand exceeding supply. The question that automatically comes to mind is: why are prices…

2 min read

Repugnant markets and prohibited transactions
Repugnant markets and prohibited transactions

2 min read


May 8, 2014

Remembering Gary Becker: A personal note

http://news.uchicago.edu/ Is it rational to oppose women’s participation in the labor market? Will society not benefit from a stream of new, high-quality ideas, as more people contribute to the economy? I asked Gary Becker these questions in his office about three years ago. As I sat down to explain my…

5 min read

Remembering Gary Becker: A personal note
Remembering Gary Becker: A personal note

5 min read


Feb 23, 2014

How not to design a survey

United Nations asks: ‘Would you rather be free, or well-fed?’ — http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/12636283363/ Imagine that I give you 16 attributes that your country might have. You have to choose six things from a list that includes: Freedom from violence Political freedom Nutritious food Better health care Equality between men and women Other good stuff… Do I learn anything at all about your…

4 min read

How not to design a survey
How not to design a survey

4 min read

Jan Zilinsky

Jan Zilinsky

555 Followers

political science & economics (sometimes with 19th century methods)

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    The NYU Center for Social Media and Politics

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